idcrypt - Galaxy Digital has sharply revised its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast, lowering its target from $185,000 to $120,000 in what the firm describes as a “structural re-evaluation” of the market. The adjustment underscores a growing belief within institutional circles that Bitcoin has transitioned into a more mature phase — one defined less by parabolic gains and more by steady, policy-sensitive behavior.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, stated in an investor note obtained by DL News that Bitcoin’s “maturity era” has begun. “The days of 1,000x, 100x, or even 10x gains are likely behind us,” Thorn wrote. His comments highlight an evolution from Bitcoin’s speculative youth into an asset class increasingly correlated with traditional markets like gold and equities.
The announcement followed a volatile week in which Bitcoin rebounded from a two-day low of $99,000 — its weakest level since May — to trade above $103,000 on Thursday morning. Despite the bounce, Thorn’s outlook reflects caution, emphasizing structural shifts rather than short-term technical rebounds.
Bitcoin’s 2025 Outlook by Galaxy Digital
Galaxy Digital’s revised Bitcoin target shows a transition from hypergrowth to maturity.
Data from DefiLlama revealed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $137 million in net outflows on Wednesday, bringing total withdrawals for November to $890 million, marking the worst month since February. However, Thorn downplayed fears of market weakness, framing these moves as part of a natural redistribution of long-held coins into more liquid, institutional-friendly environments.
“Bitcoin has matured,” Thorn asserted. “It now behaves more like gold or high-beta equities — less explosive, but more stable and policy-sensitive.” This observation reflects the increasing integration of Bitcoin into macroeconomic cycles, with its performance increasingly tied to interest rate expectations, liquidity conditions, and institutional asset allocation trends.
One of the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s cooling momentum, according to Galaxy, is the redirection of institutional capital toward artificial intelligence infrastructure, hyperscalers, and traditional safe-haven assets like gold. “In a liquidity-rich world, attention is finite,” Galaxy noted, pointing to the “AI build-out, data-centre arms race, and hyperscaler infrastructure” as the true magnets of capital in 2025.
The surge in investment toward AI-related sectors has been nothing short of phenomenal. Thorn observed that AI’s momentum has drawn vast sums away from digital assets, as investors chase more tangible short-term returns in data-centre expansion and semiconductor manufacturing. This reallocation has left crypto temporarily sidelined despite its strong start earlier in the year.
Still, Galaxy maintains that the recent sell-offs are not symptomatic of collapse but redistribution. The report highlights that more than 470,000 Bitcoin — worth roughly $50 billion — held for over five years changed hands in 2025, marking the second-largest transfer in Bitcoin’s history. These movements, Thorn argued, signify institutional absorption rather than retail capitulation.
“Coins once held by ideological early adopters are now being sold into a liquid market that can finally handle their absorption,” he said. This reflects a broader narrative of Bitcoin’s transition from a grassroots experiment to a mainstream financial instrument embraced by pension funds, ETFs, and long-term capital allocators.
Galaxy itself reportedly facilitated one of the largest single transfers of the year — a $9 billion liquidation from a legacy whale — underscoring the growing role of institutional intermediaries in the crypto market’s plumbing. The proceeds of that sale, Thorn added, were absorbed primarily by ETF providers and passive funds, reinforcing Bitcoin’s transformation into a “sticky” institutional asset.
Despite this optimism, Galaxy acknowledged that the October 10 market crash — which wiped out approximately $78 billion in open interest across crypto futures — significantly hurt liquidity and confidence. Futures market activity remains subdued, with open interest still trailing pre-crash levels. This fragility, Thorn said, is likely to persist until volatility normalizes.
Nonetheless, the firm maintains a cautiously bullish short-term stance. “We still think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls,” the report concluded. But longer-term, Galaxy’s recalibrated forecast to $120,000 signals a paradigm shift — one in which Bitcoin’s growth story is no longer driven by speculative mania but by its slow, steady adoption as digital gold.
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