idcrypt - On October 30, 2025, shares of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI.JK) continued to attract investor attention after showing a steady recovery throughout the second half of October. The stock hovered around IDR 4,550–4,600 in the latest session, sustaining momentum after bouncing from a mid-month low near IDR 4,000. This stabilization signaled renewed optimism in Indonesia’s largest state-owned bank amid a complex macro backdrop where regional equity markets remain cautious.
Throughout October, Bank Mandiri’s share performance reflected a gradual recovery from early-month weakness. After touching IDR 4,050 on October 17, the stock surged more than +12% in just one week, closing near IDR 4,550 by October 24, according to Investing.com data. The uptick aligned with increased institutional buying interest as the Jakarta Composite Index attempted to recover from its quarterly correction. While the broader market remains volatile, BMRI’s stability underscores its defensive appeal among state-linked financial stocks.
BMRI Stock Trend – October 2025
BMRI shares climbed steadily through late October, closing near IDR 4,550 on renewed investor confidence.
Market analysts attribute this rebound to a combination of attractive valuation, steady earnings expectations, and speculation around upcoming dividend announcements. At a current price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 7.8× and a forward P/E near 7.1×, Bank Mandiri appears undervalued compared with regional peers such as BCA and BNI. Value-oriented investors interpret this discount as an opportunity, particularly as Indonesia’s banking sector remains supported by domestic demand, low unemployment, and government credit programs.
From a technical standpoint, the IDR 4,000 level has emerged as a firm support base after several tests throughout September and October. The rally past IDR 4,500 was accompanied by rising volumes, indicating stronger conviction from market participants. Should BMRI close above IDR 4,600 and sustain that level, analysts foresee potential upside toward IDR 4,800 to IDR 5,000 in the near term. However, any failure to hold above IDR 4,400 could trigger renewed consolidation, especially if global risk sentiment deteriorates.
In terms of fundamentals, Bank Mandiri continues to demonstrate resilience across core segments—retail lending, corporate banking, and digital services. Its net profit margin remains above 35%, while non-performing loans have declined from 1.7% to 1.5% year-on-year, supported by improved post-pandemic credit quality. The bank’s digital transaction volume has also surged more than 25% since Q1 2025, reinforcing its push toward a hybrid retail-digital model that appeals to younger customers and SMEs.
Despite these positives, several risk factors still hover over the stock. Rising global yields, potential currency volatility, and lingering concerns about household debt could weigh on financial sector valuations. Moreover, analysts expect Bank Indonesia to maintain its cautious stance on rate cuts, meaning loan growth may remain moderate in Q4 2025. Nonetheless, the government’s continued focus on infrastructure and energy transition projects may indirectly benefit Bank Mandiri’s lending portfolio.
Foreign flow data suggests mixed sentiment. While short-term traders have taken profits after the sharp rebound, long-term funds remain net buyers since the second week of October. Reports from local brokerages such as Samuel Sekuritas indicate that foreign ownership in BMRI has stabilized after months of outflow, hinting at renewed confidence in Indonesia’s macro stability and fiscal discipline.
Investor interest is also being supported by projections of solid FY2025 earnings. Analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence and Stockbit Research forecast net profit growth of 10–12% year-over-year, driven by loan expansion, better cost efficiency, and lower provisioning. This outlook aligns with the bank’s internal targets, which emphasize retail lending, digital adoption, and ESG-linked financing for infrastructure and green energy initiatives.
Another potential catalyst is the expected dividend declaration in early 2026. Historically, BMRI has maintained an attractive dividend payout ratio between 40–60%, making it one of the most appealing income plays in Indonesia’s financial market. A rebound in net profits could prompt management to raise the dividend slightly, further enhancing investor sentiment.
Technically, chart indicators such as the 20-day and 50-day moving averages have started to converge positively, forming a golden-cross pattern that may attract algorithmic buying. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral near 55, suggesting there is still room for further appreciation before overbought conditions occur. Volume trends remain healthy, confirming sustained accumulation among institutional investors.
Macro factors will continue to play a decisive role in BMRI’s performance for the remainder of 2025. A stable rupiah, improved trade balance, and consistent fiscal policy could help extend the current rebound. Conversely, renewed geopolitical volatility or unexpected inflation spikes may cause intermittent pullbacks. Still, the overall technical setup and valuation metrics favor a cautiously optimistic stance.
In conclusion, Bank Mandiri’s October performance reinforces its position as one of Indonesia’s strongest blue-chip stocks, offering both growth potential and stability. With a blend of improving fundamentals, supportive policy environment, and emerging bullish sentiment, BMRI appears poised to sustain its recovery trajectory into Q4 2025—provided that global market conditions remain cooperative.
Sources:
Hariyanto a.k.a Binkalogi
Crypto Blogger, NFT Artist & Web3 Builder
Binkalogi shares sharp perspectives on crypto trading, NFTs, blockchain culture, and decentralized ecosystems. As the creator behind idcrypt.xyz and the ARDION token, he blends technical insights with creative vision to empower the crypto community.
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